| t research firm Gartner released the latest | | | | South Korean investment rose, Korea Semiconductor |
| semiconductor equipment market forecasts, in 2010 | | | | continues to profit, so they continue to invest in |
| more than doubled, reaching 122%, but the 2011 and | | | | DRAM, more technical upgrades, rather than |
| 2012, respectively, increased by only 10% and 7.4%, | | | | production capacity. |
| the speed slowed down significantly. | | | | Taiwan has more than enough money. Formosa |
| However, some companies even more pessimistic | | | | Plastics to help in the state, the South Asia / Inotera |
| view, such as Barclays CJ Muse, its view of | | | | continue to invest. |
| equipment in 2011, up 20% from the original, down to | | | | Investment fell in 2011 a number of aspects; |
| down 10%, the contrast between great people to | | | | Logic circuits, 2011 and 2010 decreased 5%. Because |
| panic. And 2011 the global semiconductor equipment | | | | on the one hand, under the leadership of Intel's 22nm |
| will again fall to 250 million. Its reason is the prospect | | | | to promote counter-cyclical investment and rising, but |
| of global economic uncertainty, the technology supply | | | | other logic circuits may be flat or declining plants. |
| chain, lack of market demand, especially memory and | | | | Intel's lithography equipment, which is the key, |
| OEM markets weakened. Muse believes that the | | | | because Intel will focus on orders from the past, |
| future situation with the previous industry has | | | | according to Nikon mainly into ASML. Other ways to |
| experienced a very similar situation, such as the | | | | reduce the number of iPad Netbook (online version) |
| 2004-2006 cycle, in 2004, after growth of 60%, | | | | of the order, thus affecting the performance of Intel. |
| followed in 2005 and 2006 has a flat 19% increase. | | | | (IPad OEM using Samsung processor) |
| Using a simple calculation, Muse calculated before the | | | | Foundry, 2011 and 2010 decreased 20%. |
| Road for the manufacturing equipment (WFE) Q3 | | | | The world's top foundry capacity utilization in Q42010 |
| 2010 orders for the 260-340 billion dollars, which | | | | to Q12011 see the seasonal decline. Muse that TSMC |
| means the order in 2011 WFE soon reach the peak, | | | | fabless, such as Nvidia to reduce the influence of |
| starting from Q4 2010, Q1 2011 will be particularly | | | | order, so its investment fell 30% in 2011. TSMC CEO |
| continued to decline. | | | | Morris Chang may change investment strategies, |
| Muse highlighted one thing, the report by the SICAS | | | | which may be affected by the impact of the |
| data from the market demand, macro view, the first | | | | macroeconomic environment. Due to the UMC and |
| half of 2010, only a small amount of capacity | | | | Xilinx's orders to TSMC, Samsung, the effects of |
| increase, 0,3%, while production in 2009 declined by | | | | decreased investment. On the other hand, Samsung, |
| 11% reflect the current production capacity is far | | | | LSI will continue to increase investment and the |
| from being restored to the level before 2009. In | | | | investment may be small decline GlobalFoundries. |
| addition, SICAS also proposed, advanced process | | | | DRAM 2011 and 2010 decreased 15%. |
| capacity only increased by nearly 500kwspm (500 | | | | Because DRAM prices continue to fluctuate until Q1 |
| 000 per month), so there is no spare capacity, | | | | 2011 is still expected seasonal weakness. Especially |
| especially in size by more and more difficult (ie, | | | | the top suppliers such as Samsung, Hynix and Micron |
| immersion lithography equipment delivery delivery | | | | want a soft landing. As they speed by 4x |
| delay), which means that the increased investment | | | | technology, including 1-2 home DDR3 costs may begin |
| will continue into 2012. Muse that the key to | | | | by breaking one U.S. dollar / Gb. Micron will reduce |
| promoting the growth of this wave of NAND, and | | | | DRAM investment (Nanya / Inotera's capacity |
| DRAM prices fall as market demand, and smart | | | | utilization is not high), but Elpida / Rexchip / |
| phones and iPad fluctuation on the growth of | | | | Powerchip investment remained at 2010 levels. |
| demand, but to promote the foundry business | | | | Second-tier competitors in the DRAM active |
| growth. | | | | investment promotion Samsung will continue to follow |
| Overall, Muse to see four trends in 2011; | | | | up the investment. |
| OEM's equipment orders increased, which is derived | | | | NAND flash memory in 2011 with investment growth |
| from the global OEM revived competition, such as | | | | in 2010 compared to 19%. |
| TSMC GlobalFoundries and Samsung want to | | | | NAND price fluctuations, Apple's products need more |
| compete with the high and low. | | | | memory, and Samsung is actively building Line 16, |
| NAND market, rising demand, there are 3-4 major | | | | WFE's investment of 2.5 billion, Toshiba / Sandisk up |
| NAND flash projects ready for implementation, will | | | | to two billion U.S. dollars of the WFE and WFE IM |
| promote increased investment. | | | | Flash's 15 million. |