| v Venkayya, Special Assistant for Biodefense to U.S. | | | | virus mutate into a form that can be spread easily |
| President George W. Bush said "I think that number is | | | | from human to human, according to a survey led by |
| a very optimistic number if we are talking about a | | | | researchers at Carnegie Mellon University. The results |
| 1918-wide pandemic today," | | | | of the survey were published in the June 2006 issue |
| Health experts worry that the highly pathogenic H5N1 | | | | of the journal Global Public Health. |
| avian influenza virus that re-emerged in Asia in 2003 | | | | The 19 medical experts who attended the |
| and spread widely to more than 60 countries has | | | | Pandefense 1.0 meeting in November gave a median |
| now mutated and will spread between people, | | | | estimate of a less than 1 percent chance that the |
| sparking a human flu pandemic. | | | | U.S. will have adequate stockpiles of vaccines or |
| The H5N1 virus has killed at least 300 people out of | | | | antiviral drugs to prevent a pandemic within the next |
| 600 known human cases and ravaged poultry stocks. | | | | three years. The same experts gave a median |
| The 1918-19 "Spanish influenza" pandemic -- the | | | | estimate of 15 percent for the probability that the |
| worst in living history -- killed anywhere from 20 | | | | avian flu virus will mutate into a strain that can |
| million to 100 million people. Half a million died in the | | | | spread efficiently by human-to-human contact within |
| United States alone. (Source : Birdflu1.net ) | | | | that time. Their median worst-case estimate of the |
| Last month, a Harvard University study published in | | | | number of people who would die, should that happen, |
| The Lancet medical journal said developing countries | | | | was 6 million in the United States and 180 million |
| would bear the vast majority of the 62 million deaths | | | | worldwide. Their median best-case estimates were |
| in a similar pandemic. | | | | 500,000 dead in the United States and 20 million |
| Venkayya did not give a forecast of possible deaths | | | | worldwide. |
| in a pandemic -- which the World Health Organisation | | | | "It surprised me that they thought it was going to be |
| and other experts say is inevitable and overdue -- | | | | this bad," said Wandi Bruine De Bruin, lead author of |
| but said the number of fatalities could be frightening. | | | | the study and research faculty member in the |
| "The bottom line is that they (U.S. government | | | | Department of Social and Decision Sciences at |
| guesses about a toll) are all very high and all very | | | | Carnegie Mellon. |
| scary," Venkayya told a meeting attended by | | | | The survey also included 17 non-medical experts from |
| government health and defence officials organi sed | | | | a variety of fields who were more pessimistic about |
| by a business chamber in New Delhi. | | | | the likelihood of human-to-human transmission, giving |
| The U.S. government says countries need to sharply | | | | a median 60 percent chance that it would occur |
| step up vaccine production capacity -- currently at | | | | within three years. They did, however, have more |
| around 350 million doses per year for a global | | | | faith in medical science, giving a median 15 percent |
| population of more than 6 billion people. | | | | chance of the United States having enough vaccine |
| Venkayya also called for urgent efforts to try to | | | | and a 30 percent chance that the nation would have |
| utilise adjuvants -- substances that be delivered along | | | | enough antiviral medications to halt a pandemic. |
| with vaccines and that enhance the immune response | | | | "The medical experts' estimates suggest this is a |
| to a vaccine dose. | | | | bigger risk than anything else we are facing," said |
| "So for every individual you are immunising, you can | | | | Baruch Fischhoff, a study co-author and the Howard |
| use a much smaller dose of vaccine than you would | | | | Heinz University Professor of Social and Decision |
| have without the adjuvant which means you can | | | | Sciences and Engineering and Public Policy at Carnegie |
| immunise many more people." | | | | Mellon. |
| He said recent data from global drug firms such as | | | | Both the medical and the non-medical experts agreed |
| GlaxoSmithKline Plc, which were carrying out tests on | | | | that the greatest hope for mitigating the effects of |
| adjuvants, suggested that if they proved to be safe, | | | | an avian flu outbreak among humans lies in |
| they would allow countries to immunise more than 20 | | | | heightened global surveillance and, should the virus |
| times more people from a single dose of vaccine. | | | | become pandemic, hand washing, mask wearing and |
| "That is the single most promising thing on the | | | | social distancing. Unfortunately, the efficacy of such |
| vaccine side of the equation, I believe." | | | | strategies in preventing the spread of infectious |
| However a group of medical experts who attended a | | | | diseases has not been extensively studied, Bruine de |
| national avian flu conference last fall believe there is | | | | Bruin said. Although the federal government has |
| little chance the United States will be able to | | | | expressed a commitment to open communication |
| manufacture and stockpile enough vaccine or antiviral | | | | about these risks, its messages have not yet been |
| medication to stop a bird flu pandemic should the | | | | scientifically evaluated, according to Fischhoff. |